3 Ways Leaders Can Make Decisions When They Lack Sufficient Data

The call comes in. A key team runs into an unexpected problem, and they need to make a decision soon about how to move forward. A data-based decision makes the most sense, but you don’t have access to the data you need. How do you find clarity to steer the ship? 

Leaders have always had to make occasional decisions with insufficient data, but the dilemma is becoming more common as uncertainty permeates today’s business environment. Leaders need to foster adaptability to meet the challenges ahead. But here’s the thing — adapting to uncertainty isn’t about having all the answers up front. It’s about gearing your internal resources to navigate rough seas and emerge stronger.

For leaders, this means finding clarity and confidence in decision-making. Mistakes, failures, and even missed opportunities are inevitable, but they don’t have to fade into lessons learned — they can deepen their impact as you grow your career and take on larger responsibilities.

Balancing Speed and Impact

Ever feel like you’re in a tug-of-war with the time you spend on decisions, pondering for hours on an issue with little material effect or rushing through one that deserved hours of thoughtful consideration? Determining this time is just as important as your decision quality. You don’t want to end up taking a long time to make what should be a quick decision and then rush into what should be a longer decision. 

This framework can help you gauge a decision’s materiality, or impact on the organization:

• Cross-team impact: How many parts of the organization would this decision affect? Will it change team structures, skills, or capacity? 
• Process alignment: Does the organization already have processes to support this decision, or are you starting from scratch? 
• Tech requirements: Can you leverage existing tools to execute this decision, or will it require new investments? 
• Financial significance: What’s the potential impact on revenue, margins, or other key metrics? 
• Customer experience: Will the decision enhance or disrupt how customers interact with the business? 

If the answers reveal minimal impact, move quickly; if the impact runs deep, take the time to deliberate. Not every decision deserves extensive bandwidth — but the significant ones require it.

Sharpening Decision-Making Skills 

With considerations covered, consider that decision-making under pressure or without data isn’t just guesswork — it’s a muscle you can build over time. 

1. Build foundational insights. 

You can’t know everything at every moment, but you can build out your organizational knowledge to pull from at crucial points. Develop the habit of reviewing current projects, processes, and team dynamics. Don’t be afraid of details; getting a working understanding of what’s happening on the shop floor helps you separate fact from perception. Having this foundational knowledge at your fingertips means you’re not walking blind into decision-making conversations — you’re equipped with context.

2. Intuit from past decisions.

Intuition is the quiet voice in your head that says, “I’ve seen something like this before,” based on patterns and lessons from years of experience. Leaders already have this voice in their head, even if they don’t realize it. You probably weren’t making high-stakes decisions at the start of your career, but even the small decisions you made then hold value. Reflect on them. What went well? What didn’t? How did the dynamics play out? Every one of those experiences contributes to your toolbox for the decisions you face today.

3. Understand the problem before diagramming a solution.

Solutions can be exciting — sometimes too exciting. Maybe this excitement makes things easier for the players within a decision: an organization’s  employees, technology, customers, or financials. It’s easy to fall in love with a solution, but it’s important to fall in love with the problem first. Why? Because the uniqueness of each challenge dictates the design of its solution. Overlooking this part might result in a mismatch of problem and solution — a scenario that could create unintended costs down the line. Counterintuitively, a wide perspective gives you the ability to zero in on a surgical solution. In every organization, sales wants more leads, marketing wants better products, and engineering wants new technology. Seeing the whole picture to find the most significant opportunity comes from experience and knowing the right questions to ask. Overcorrecting in the wrong places will only lead to bigger gaps.

Ultimately, strong decision-making starts with viewing your role through the lens of transformation. The leaders who rise above uncertainty are those who align effort with impact, harness lessons from their missteps, and understand that decision-making is as much about perspective as it is about process. The future may be riddled with unpredictability, but leaders with a long-game perspective on decision-making will emerge stronger, more agile, and ready to tackle the unknown.

Andy Biladeau is the chief transformation officer at SHRM. He previously served as the director of talent development at Target Corporation and was a founding member of the Josh Bersin Company. He began his career at PwC, where he led global transformation initiatives for Fortune 500 clients and founded PwC’s Learning Solutions consulting practice.