Current Conditions
Despite the ongoing challenges regarding inflation and political uncertainty in Q4 2024, HR executives expressed growing optimism about the economy, according to SHRM’s quarterly CHRO Business Outlook survey. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of stable or improving economic outlooks among HR executives.
Almost one-third of HR executives rate current economic conditions positively (30% as good, 2% as excellent), compared with nearly 1 in 5 holding a negative opinion (17% poor, 1% very poor). The remaining 49% described economic conditions as “fair.”
The percentage of HR executives with a positive outlook on the economy exceeds those with a negative view by 14 points. Compared to Q4 2023, optimism has improved significantly, with a 14-percentage-point increase in positive assessments over the past year.
6-Month Economic Forecast: Rising Optimism Signals a Positive Shift
HR executives expressed growing optimism in Q4 2024, with the highest proportion expecting good or excellent conditions since Q4 2022, when SHRM began tracking HR executive sentiments. Over one-third (35%) of HR executives hold a positive outlook for the next six months, a 4-percentage-point increase from Q3 2024, while fewer (46%) expect fair conditions, a 4-percentage-point decrease. What’s more, less than 1 in 5 (18%) foresee negative conditions, with forecasts of poor or very poor dropping 1 percentage point in Q3 and another 2 percentage points in Q4.
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Outlook on Revenue, Profits, and Investment
HR executives are generally optimistic about their business forecast for the next six months, with a higher percentage anticipating increases in revenue, profits, and capital expenditure. Overall, this reflects a more optimistic outlook than in Q3 2024.
- Revenue: 61% of HR executives expect an increase (6-percentage-point increase from Q3)
- Profits: 46% of HR executives expect an increase (2-percentage-point increase from Q3)
- Capital expenditures: 44% of HR executives expect an increase (3-percentage-point increase from Q3)
| Increase of over 20% | Increase of 10%-20% | Increase of less than 10% | No change | Decrease of less than 10% | Decrease of 10%-20% | Decrease of over 20% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 3% | 18% | 39% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| Profits | 2% | 12% | 32% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 1% |
| Capital Expenditures | 2% | 15% | 27% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 3% |
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Methodology
The CHRO Business Outlook survey is a research study conducted quarterly. The survey was fielded electronically using the SHRM Voice of Work Research Panel to U.S.-based HR executives and senior HR executives (VP+). Respondents represented organizations of all sizes and across industries.
| Quarter, Year | Sample Size (n) | Fielding Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | n = 241 | 12/01/22 - 12/22/22 |
| Q1 2023 | n = 249 | 03/06/23 - 03/21/23 |
| Q2 2023 | n = 199 | 06/08/23 - 06/16/23 |
| Q3 2023 | n = 536 | 08/30/23 - 09/11/23 |
| Q4 2023 | n = 376 | 11/17/23 - 11/22/23 |
| Q1 2024 | n = 391 | 01/03/24 - 01/10/24 |
| Q2 2024 | n = 352 | 04/15/24 - 04/24/24 |
| Q3 2024 | n = 339 | 07/17/24 - 07/25/24 |
| Q4 2024 | n = 320 | 10/16/24 - 10/25/24 |
Read the Q4 2024 series:
CHRO Employment Outlook | CHRO Economic Outlook | SHRM Hiring & Retention Difficulty Indexes